Peru | Positive GDP surprise in March

Output grew 18.2% YoY in March, higher than expected by the market consensus (15.8%). This result hides a low year-on-year comparison base, since isolation measures were introduced in March 2020 and they were much tighter than the current ones.

Key points

• Key points:
• In an analysis that compares the 2021 GDP monthly prints with those of 2019 in order to avoid the strong distortion of the low YoY comparison base, output fell 1.7% in March (-0.6% in February).
• Along the same lines, Construction and services such as Telecommunications and Finance stood out by sector, activities that have shown good performance for several months and are above their pre-crisis levels. On the contrary, Mining, Hydrocarbons, Non-primary Manufacturing, and Commerce are still below their pre-ndemic levels.
• With the March result, the economy advanced 3.8% year-on-year in the first quarter.
• The indicators available for April - discounting the base effect - suggest that, in a context of greater uncertainty related to the outcome of the electoral process, economic activity has lost its thrust by the beginning of the second quarter.
• In the labor market, the situation remains the same as in the last months, where employment and labor conditions are still far from their pre-pandemic levels. Its likely the labor market will not show signs of a significant recovery until the sources of uncertainty of consuming, investment, and hiring do not dissipate.

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