Spain | Castile and Leon Economic Outlook 2025

Summary

In 2024, Castilla y León's GDP could have grown by 3.4%, and is forecast to increase by 2.0% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Going forward, the evolution of activity will be marked by high economic and tariff policy uncertainty and the slow recovery in Europe.

Key points

• Key points:
• Castilla y León's GDP is showing solid growth, above the Eurozone average. Employment is increasing in urban areas, with greater dynamism in Burgos, Salamanca and Valladolid. This is consistent with a growth model based on the progress of services, both public and private.
• Among the factors supporting growth will be the fall in oil and gas prices; the more expansionary tone of economic policy in Europe; and a greater capacity for growth in the services sector (due to immigration and increases in hourly productivity).
• Increased tariffs and uncertainty will affect trade flows and investment, which will have a significant impact on production in Castilla y León.
• Bottlenecks are perceived as the lack of sensitivity shown by private investment to the recovery; the high level of household savings, or the shortage of affordable housing.
• By the end of 2026, GDP per capita could be 9.3pp above 2019 levels (Spain 4.5pp). If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could fall to 8.8% on average in 2026 and 24,400 new jobs could be created in the 2025-2026 biennium.

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