Spain | Catalonia Economic Outlook. First Half 2025

Summary

In 2024, Catalonia's GDP could have grown by 3.2%, and is expected to increase by 2.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Going forward, the evolution of activity will be marked by the high uncertainty surrounding economic and tariff policies and the slow recovery in Europe.

Key points

• Key points:
• Catalonia's GDP continues to show solid growth, tripling that of the eurozone. In 2025, employment will grow more outside the Barcelona metropolitan area, but growth will remain similar to that of Spain as a whole, supported by the public sector, professional activities, and finance.
• Among the factors that will support growth will be the fall in oil and gas prices; the more expansionary tone of economic policy in Europe; and a greater capacity for growth in the services sector (due to immigration and increases in hourly productivity).
• Rising tariffs and uncertainty will affect trade flows and investment. A somewhat greater aggregate impact is expected than that experienced by the Spanish economy as a whole.
• Bottlenecks are perceived as the lack of responsiveness of private investment to the recovery; the high level of household savings; and the shortage of affordable housing.
• If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could fall to an average of 9.1% in 2026, and 5,700 new jobs could be created between 2025 and 2026.

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