Spain | Catalonia Economic Outlook. Second Half 2025

Summary

Catalonia will maintain solid growth of 3.1% in 2025 despite the European slowdown, supported by investment, job creation, and easing inflation.

Key points

• Key points:
• Above-average growth: Catalonia’s GDP is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, remaining above the euro area average.
• Strong job creation: Around 195,000 new jobs are expected to be created between 2025 and 2026, reducing the unemployment rate to 7.9%. Employment growth is especially strong in the metropolitan areas of Barcelona and Tarragona.
• Main growth drivers: Expansion is supported by the services sector (public services, trade, and professional activities), construction investment, and a rebound in industry. Additional support comes from EU funds, higher real wages, and lower interest rates.
• Structural support factors: Favorable terms of trade due to lower energy prices, higher productivity in services, and household consumption growth driven by wage increases all contribute to the expansion.
• Risks and bottlenecks: Challenges remain, including a shortage of affordable housing, skills gaps in the labor market, low productivity, and domestic political uncertainty, all of which could limit convergence with Europe’s most prosperous regions.

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