Spain | Corporate credit returns, but not equally across the board

Spain has left behind the long journey of corporate deleveraging. Since mid-2024, the balance of credit to economic activities has been growing again, and as of March 2026, it was up 3.6% year-on-year. After a decade of adjustment, the change in trend is clear, although it cannot be called a generalized expansion. Corporate financing is increasing, but it is doing so below nominal GDP, which grew by 6% year-on-year in the first quarter. Therefore, it continues to lose relative weight.

The recovery is uneven: while credit to the primary sector is growing by 2.2%, that destined for industry is falling by 2.1% and construction is down by 1.1%. Deleveraging has not ended for many companies; it has simply stopped dominating the aggregate.

Services offer the most favorable picture. They account for nearly 74% of corporate credit and are recording growth of 5.4%. Hospitality, financial intermediation, real estate development, and other services are advancing, although trade and transport continue to reduce credit. All in all, this evolution reflects an economy that is increasingly service-oriented.

To understand these differences, the bank lending survey conducted by the Bank of Spain gives us some clues: in the first half of 2026, lending criteria tightened slightly in trade and construction, and somewhat more in the manufacturing industry, especially among energy-intensive companies and vehicle manufacturers. On the demand side, applications decreased in industry, with greater intensity in those same segments, while they increased slightly in construction and real estate activities. In other words, the lower industrial dynamism does not respond solely to somewhat more restrictive criteria, but also to weaker demand for financing.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, no significant changes in lending criteria are anticipated, except for a moderate tightening in vehicle manufacturing. Demand is expected to remain stable in almost all sectors, except in energy-intensive industry and the automotive sector, where it would continue to weaken slightly. This diagnosis fits with the enterprise access to business survey: they do not report difficulties in accessing credit, they expect an improvement, and they also point to less "discouraged demand."

Looking ahead, credit will grow if private investment gains traction, especially in sectors that need to expand capacity, digitize processes, improve energy efficiency, renew equipment, or boost housing construction. In fact, loans with maturities of more than five years are already the most dynamic, a sign consistent with the recovery of investment projects. The outlook is favorable, but the generalized recovery of credit will depend on companies finding incentives to invest. That requires confidence, regulatory certainty, and solid investment projects.