Spain Economic Outlook. October 2024

Summary

GDP growth forecasts have been revised upwards by 0.4 percentage points for 2024 to reach 2.9%, and by 0.3 pp for 2025 to reach 2.4%. This is due to statistical revisions of historical data, recent developments more favorable than expected, and improved estimates of external and internal demand contributions.

Key points

• Key points:
• Global growth will converge toward moderate levels. In the U.S., forecasts have improved due to recent data, but a slowdown is anticipated. In the eurozone, projections remain unchanged. In China, recent stimulus measures will support growth but will not prevent a structural slowdown.
• The good performance of the economy is based on improvements in competitiveness—especially in services—, the increase in the labor force—mainly immigrants—and a fiscal policy that continues to support domestic demand.
• Going forward, a slowdown is expected as the contribution of external demand turns negative, given the limitation of the expansion of tourism services exports and the transition to a growth model with higher spending on imported goods.
• The economy faces structural challenges such as bottlenecks in some exporting sectors, the factors behind the increase in household savings, low levels of investment and productivity (particularly in housing), an aging population, a shortage of certain types of human capital, and fiscal adjustments in the coming years.

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