Spain | Galicia Economic Outlook 2025

Summary

Galicia's GDP could have grown by 3.3% in 2024, and is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. Going forward, the economy's development will be marked by the weak performance of the industrial sector, high uncertainty regarding economic and tariff policies, and the slow recovery in Europe.

Key points

• Key points:
• Galicia's GDP shows solid growth, more than doubling the growth of the eurozone as a whole. The dynamism of Galician household consumption and foreign tourism sustain the economy's growth. Job creation is concentrated in the services sector (public and professional). This is particularly evident in the province of A Coruña. However, industry and goods exports are experiencing an unfavorable environment, and tourism from Spain was already showing some moderation before the negative impact of the fires, particularly in the province of Ourense.
• Among the factors that will support growth are the fall in oil and gas prices; the more expansionary tone of economic policy in Europe; and a greater capacity for growth in the services sector (due to immigration and increases in hourly productivity).
• Rising tariffs and uncertainty will affect trade flows and investment.
• Bottlenecks are perceived as the lack of responsiveness of private investment to the recovery, the high level of household savings, and low population growth.
• By the end of 2026, GDP per capita could be 10.5 percentage points above 2019 levels (Spain's 4.5 percentage points). If these forecasts come to fruition, the unemployment rate could fall to an average of 8.6% in 2026, and 29,500 new jobs could be created in the two-year period 2025-2026.

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