Spain | Navarre Economic Outlook 2026

BBVA Research expects Navarra's GDP to grow by 2.0% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027 (Spain: 2.1%). Employment, consumption and fiscal policy will support economic activity, while a recovery in exports will help accelerate growth, despite risks related to industry and energy.

Key points

• Key points:
• Employment will continue to grow, supported by the services sector and immigration. Around 8,700 jobs are expected to be created between 2025 and 2027, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.8% in 2027. Social Security registrations are increasing throughout the region, with stronger growth in Pamplona.
• Private consumption and international tourism remain buoyant. Spending with domestically issued cards rose by 7.7% y/y through September 2026, while spending with foreign-issued cards increased by 18.7%, more than twice the rate recorded in Spain as a whole. Inflation and uncertainty could weigh on consumption over the coming quarters.
• Industry and goods exports remain weak. Industrial production fell by 2.2% y/y through August 2026, while goods exports declined by 3.6% through July, in contrast to the increases recorded in Spain as a whole. A recovery in European demand could support a gradual improvement in 2027.
• Residential investment and fiscal policy will help sustain domestic demand. Around 2,600 homes are expected to be completed annually in 2026 and 2027. Higher public spending, tax cuts and the deployment of EU funds will also support economic activity, although their contribution to growth could moderate thereafter.
• Supply constraints and demographic challenges could limit medium-term growth. Housing shortages, difficulties filling job vacancies, generational turnover and electricity grid capacity constraints are weighing on Navarra's growth potential. Boosting productivity and investment will be essential to address these challenges.

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