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Published on Thursday, July 8, 2021

Document number 21/07

Big Data techniques used

Turkey | Big Data and Nowcasting: Consumption and Investment from Bank Transactions

Summary

This paper demonstrates how we use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm Garanti BBVA bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand in real time and high frequency, which has been proven to be necessary to react to rapidly changing economic conditions.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • We replicate the quarterly national accounts aggregate consumption and investment (gross fixed capital formation) and its bigger components (Machinery and Equipment, and Construction) in real time for Turkey.
  • To validate the usefulness of these indicators we test their ability to nowcast the Turkish GDP using different models. The results are successful proving the usefulness of Consumption and investment Banking transactions for nowcasting purposes.
  • The value of the Big Data information is more relevant at the beginning of the nowcasting process, when the traditional hard data information is scarce. This makes this information especially relevant for those countries where statistical release lags are longer like the Emerging Markets.

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Documents and files

Report (PDF)

WP_21_07_Big_Data_Nowcasting_Turkey_WB.pdf

English - July 8, 2021

Authors

AB
Ali Batuhan Barlas BBVA Research - Principal Economist
SG
Seda Guler Mert BBVA Research - Chief Economist
BO
Berk Orkun Isa
AO
Alvaro Ortiz BBVA Research - Head of Analysis with Big Data
TR
Tomasa Rodrigo BBVA Research - Lead Economist
BS
Baris Soybilgen
EY
Ege Yazgan
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