Turkey: V-shaped Growth Recovery on Revisions and Consumption

Summary

4Q16 GDP grew by 3.5% YoY, significantly above the market and our expectation of 1.9%. Accordingly, full year GDP growth came in at 2.9%. Surging private consumption and much higher than expected growth in industry were the main sources of our bias. Our monthly GDP model signals a further recovery in 1Q17, suggesting a v-shaped recovery after the slump in 3Q16.

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