United Kingdom | The slight post-Brexit recession will foster more accommodative policies

The easing of financial stresses after the Brexit is positive, but the high uncertainty and the sharp decline in confidence will probably cause a slight recession in 2H16, which will lead to ease the monetary policy in August and to postpone the balancing of the budget. We revise our GDP growth forecast downwards by -0.3pp for 2016 (1.5%) and -1.5pp in 2017 (0.4%).

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