Public revenue in the first semester was MXN 157,650 million (0.5% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.
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Upward revision to our 2023 real GDP growth estimate to 3.2% (2.4% previously); we anticipate a 2.6% growth rate for 2024 (1.8% previously).
The 2024 Economic Package was built with realistic macroeconomic assumptions. The fiscal equilibrium will be maintained in spite of such package setting a target of -1.2% of GDP for next year’s primary balance.
The next federal government will face a strong pressure on its public finances derived from current spending, pensions and the needs of higher physical investment.
Public revenue in the first semester was MXN 189,558 million (0.6% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.
Public revenue in the first quarter was MXN 117,486 million (0.4% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.
Given that rainy funds have already been exhausted by the current government and the pressure from some items of public spending will continue, the next government will not have enough fiscal space to avoid creating and/or raising taxes.
Upward revision to our 2023 real GDP growth forecast to 1.4% (0.6% previously); we expect the economy will grow 2.2% in 2024. Private spending will drive growth this year and mitigate the slowdown in manufacturing amid external demand weakness.
Public revenue in 2022 was MXN 422,463 million (1.5% of GDP) above budget due to higher oil-related income and to a lesser extent the performance of non-tax revenue.
For the stability of the broadest public debt (% of GDP) indicator in the following years, the federal government assumes that public sector borrowing requirements will be reduced from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.7% of GDP in 2024-28 and economic growth …
We expect lower growth and inflation in 2023. GDP would grow 3.0% in 2022 driven by the manufacturing sector. We stick to our 0.6% GDP growth forecast for 2023 but with an upward bias considering the 3Q22 data, INEGI’s revisions, and the effect of nearshoring.
For 2022 the Ministry of Finance estimates that the loss of revenue collection from excise taxes on fuels will be around MXN 397,600 million (1.4% of GDP) and oil-related income will be MXN 397,840 million (1.4% of GDP) above budget.