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Public revenue in the first quarter was MXN 117,486 million (0.4% of GDP) below budget due to lower oil-related income as international prices of a crude oil barrel went down.
Given that rainy funds have already been exhausted by the current government and the pressure from some items of public spending will continue, the next government will not have enough fiscal space to avoid creating and/or raising taxes.
Upward revision to our 2023 real GDP growth forecast to 1.4% (0.6% previously); we expect the economy will grow 2.2% in 2024. Private spending will drive growth this year and mitigate the slowdown in manufacturing amid external demand weakness.
Public revenue in 2022 was MXN 422,463 million (1.5% of GDP) above budget due to higher oil-related income and to a lesser extent the performance of non-tax revenue.
For the stability of the broadest public debt (% of GDP) indicator in the following years, the federal government assumes that public sector borrowing requirements will be reduced from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.7% of GDP in 2024-28 and economic growth …
We expect lower growth and inflation in 2023. GDP would grow 3.0% in 2022 driven by the manufacturing sector. We stick to our 0.6% GDP growth forecast for 2023 but with an upward bias considering the 3Q22 data, INEGI’s revisions, and the effect of nearshoring.
For 2022 the Ministry of Finance estimates that the loss of revenue collection from excise taxes on fuels will be around MXN 397,600 million (1.4% of GDP) and oil-related income will be MXN 397,840 million (1.4% of GDP) above budget.
Headwinds will slow economic growth in 2023. We revised down our growth estimate for 2023 to 0.6% (previously 1.6%), given lower growth of domestic demand in an environment of high inflation, higher interest rates and lower growth in the United…
The economic package reinforces the commitment to fiscal discipline by setting a target of 0.2% of GDP for the primary deficit and stability around 49.4% of GDP for the public debt.
The Ministry of Finance estimates that the loss of revenue collection from excise taxes on fuels will be around MXN 421,600 million (1.5% of GDP) and oil-related income will be MXN 368,710 million (1.3% of GDP) above budget. Consequently, this …
The expectation of economic growth for 2022 improves due to the greater dynamism of the first semester. We revised our real GDP growth rate forecast to 2.0% (up from 1.2%) due to the good performance of the first half of the year driven by the tertiary sector.
The findings of this document seem to confirm that fiscal policy in Mexico has been procyclical in the period spanning from 1993 to 2019.
