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September 9, 2022

Mexico | The 2023 economic package keeps fiscal equilibrium with little room for maneuver

The economic package reinforces the commitment to fiscal discipline by setting a target of 0.2% of GDP for the primary deficit and stability around 49.4% of GDP for the public debt.

August 2, 2022

Mexico | Oil windfall income will not compensate the loss of excise taxes on fuels in 2022

The Ministry of Finance estimates that the loss of revenue collection from excise taxes on fuels will be around MXN 421,600 million (1.5% of GDP) and oil-related income will be MXN 368,710 million (1.3% of GDP) above budget. Consequently, this windfall income will not be enough to compensate the revenue loss of the former.

July 14, 2022

Mexico Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2022

The expectation of economic growth for 2022 improves due to the greater dynamism of the first semester. We revised our real GDP growth rate forecast to 2.0% (up from 1.2%) due to the good performance of the first half of the year driven by the tertiary sector.

July 9, 2022

Mexico | How sensitive is GDP to public spending?

The findings of this document seem to confirm that fiscal policy in Mexico has been procyclical in the period spanning from 1993 to 2019.

May 12, 2022

Mexico | Income tax revenue compensates lower income from excise taxes on fuels

In March 2022 the historic balance of public sector borrowing requirements (HBPSBR) was 46.8% vs. 50.0% of GDP in December 2021. The reduction in such balance was due to the fall of 1.7 and 1.5 percentage points of GDP in the internal and external debt component, respectively.

April 6, 2022

Mexico Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2022

Economic outlook with lower GDP growth, high inflation, and higher interest rates. A downward revision to our 2022 GDP growth estimate to 1.2% (2.1% previous) due to the continued weakness of domestic demand and the additional disruptions to global value chains driven by the Ukraine conflict.

March 22, 2022

Mexico | Gasoline impact on excise taxes on fuels and consumer prices

The significant increase in the international price of gasoline due to the war between Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse impact on the revenue derived from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.

February 4, 2022

Mexico | Higher discretionary spending to reactivate the economy

In December 2021 the historic balance of public sector borrowing requirements (HBPSBR) was 50.3% vs. 51.7% of GDP in December 2020. The reduction in such balance was due to the fall of 1.6 percentage points of GDP in the external debt component. In contrast, the domestic debt element increased by 0.2 percentage points.