For the stability of the broadest public debt (% of GDP) indicator in the following years, the federal government assumes that public sector borrowing requirements will be reduced from 4.1% in 2023 to 2.7% of GDP in 2024-28 and economic growth forecasts of 2.3% for 2023 and 2.0% for 2024-28.
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We expect lower growth and inflation in 2023. GDP would grow 3.0% in 2022 driven by the manufacturing sector. We stick to our 0.6% GDP growth forecast for 2023 but with an upward bias considering the 3Q22 data, INEGI’s revisions, and the effect of nearshoring.
For 2022 the Ministry of Finance estimates that the loss of revenue collection from excise taxes on fuels will be around MXN 397,600 million (1.4% of GDP) and oil-related income will be MXN 397,840 million (1.4% of GDP) above budget.
Headwinds will slow economic growth in 2023. We revised down our growth estimate for 2023 to 0.6% (previously 1.6%), given lower growth of domestic demand in an environment of high inflation, higher interest rates and lower growth in the United…
The economic package reinforces the commitment to fiscal discipline by setting a target of 0.2% of GDP for the primary deficit and stability around 49.4% of GDP for the public debt.
August 2, 2022
Mexico | Oil windfall income will not compensate the loss of excise taxes on fuels in 2022
The Ministry of Finance estimates that the loss of revenue collection from excise taxes on fuels will be around MXN 421,600 million (1.5% of GDP) and oil-related income will be MXN 368,710 million (1.3% of GDP) above budget. Consequently, this windfall income will not be enough to compensate the revenue loss of the former.
The expectation of economic growth for 2022 improves due to the greater dynamism of the first semester. We revised our real GDP growth rate forecast to 2.0% (up from 1.2%) due to the good performance of the first half of the year driven by the tertiary sector.
The findings of this document seem to confirm that fiscal policy in Mexico has been procyclical in the period spanning from 1993 to 2019.
In March 2022 the historic balance of public sector borrowing requirements (HBPSBR) was 46.8% vs. 50.0% of GDP in December 2021. The reduction in such balance was due to the fall of 1.7 and 1.5 percentage points of GDP in the internal and exter…
Economic outlook with lower GDP growth, high inflation, and higher interest rates. A downward revision to our 2022 GDP growth estimate to 1.2% (2.1% previous) due to the continued weakness of domestic demand and the additional disruptions to gl…
The significant increase in the international price of gasoline due to the war between Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse impact on the revenue derived from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.
In December 2021 the historic balance of public sector borrowing requirements (HBPSBR) was 50.3% vs. 51.7% of GDP in December 2020. The reduction in such balance was due to the fall of 1.6 percentage points of GDP in the external debt component. In contrast, the domestic debt element increased by 0.2 percentage points.