Mexico Economic Outlook. September 2023

Summary

Upward revision to our 2023 real GDP growth estimate to 3.2% (2.4% previously); we anticipate a 2.6% growth rate for 2024 (1.8% previously).

Key points

• Key points:
• Consumption remains resilient, driven by gains in real wages, employment and a lower savings rate among the highest income deciles.
• Investment shows a positive performance, favored by public investment and the rapid growth of the imported machinery and equipment component.
• Formal employment will continue strong during 2023, supporting the real wage bill. Our outlook improves for 2024.
• The 2024 economic package will not result in significant fiscal imbalances next year, but will impose significant challenges for the next Administration.
• We delayed the start of a Banxico easing cycle to 1Q24, to reach a target rate of 8.25% at the end of 2024.

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