BBVA Research

Argentina’s economy continues to consolidate its macroeconomic stabilization. While the external sector is gaining strength through the contribution of energy and mining, the main challenge remains extending the recovery to employment, incomes, and the more lagging sectors of the economy.

We have revised down our 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% (from 1.8% previously), due to weak domestic demand and a prolonged environment of uncertainty. After a weak 2025, formal employment begins to improve. We expect core inflation to resume its downward trend in the second quarter of the year.

Uruguay maintains strong macroeconomic fundamentals, low inflation, and favorable access to financing. However, economic growth is expected to remain moderate (1.3% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027). Increasing investment will therefore be critical to overcoming structural constraints and developing new drivers of growth.

We expect the disinflation process to remain broadly on track against a softer growth backdrop in the short term. Persistent inflationary pressures and external uncertainties warrant a more cautious policy outlook, while selective easing is likely to continue within an overall restrictive policy mix.

Growth is likely to be stronger than previously expected in 2026 and weaker in 2027, but should remain close to 2%. Higher inflation, around 5% in 2H26, driven mainly by the global energy shock, will constrain the scope for further monetary easing, although additional Selic cuts remain likely.

Chinese economy is domestic driven and Iran war’ impact on China’s economic growth and inflation has been limited compared with other Asian economies.

Consumer inflation materialized at 1.7% m/m, in line with our expectation, bringing annual inflation to 32.6%. Assuming a gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz and some normalization in energy prices in 2H26, we maintain our year-end CPI forecast at 30%, while acknowledging upside risks amid war-related uncertainty

The Big Data Private Consumption Index recorded a year-on-year growth of 9.4% in April, lower than the rate observed in the previous month (March: 13.1%). This moderation occurred in a context where household purchasing power continued to be affected by the significant increase in consumer prices.

This study analyses the evolution of revenues, expenditures, budget balance, and debt of Spain’s autonomous communities from 2003 to 2025. It adjusts for the impact of atypical factors such as the pandemic in order to show the underlying deficit and the true financial situation.

Social Security affiliation increased by 232,000 people, and unemployment fell by 36,300. Adjusted for seasonality, it is estimated that employment reached 57,000 contributors, but unemployment grew by 2,300. Significant effects from the extraordinary immigrant regularization process are not yet noticeable.

In this edition of the QLMO, we assess recent labour market developments using the information available through Q1 2026. We review the main aggregate indicators and explore a number of issues related to working conditions, immigration, and youth emancipation.

Recent economic slowdown has already weighed on the internal sources of financing as retirement savings gain greater relevance. These resources have been allocated mainly to the public sector and households, particularly through banking credit.

The Colombian automotive sector experienced a strong recovery in 2025 and has further accelerated its momentum in 2026. Growth has been driven by improved household consumption, the rise of utility vehicles, and the advancement of hybrid and electric technologies.