Argentina Economic Outlook. June 2026

Summary

Argentina’s economy continues to consolidate its macroeconomic stabilization. While the external sector is gaining strength through the contribution of energy and mining, the main challenge remains extending the recovery to employment, incomes, and the more lagging sectors of the economy.

Key points

• Key points:
• We forecast GDP growth of 3.0% in both 2026 and 2027, mainly driven by investment and exports. However, the recovery continues to show significant differences across sectors and regions, with stronger performance in energy, mining, and other natural resource-related activities.
• The fiscal surplus remains the economy’s main macroeconomic anchor. We maintain our forecast of a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP in both 2026 and 2027.
• Inflation resumed its downward trend during the second quarter, and we expect it to end 2026 at 29%, supported by exchange rate stability, lower financial volatility, and the continuation of fiscal discipline.
• International reserve accumulation gained momentum during 2026. The Central Bank (BCRA) recorded net foreign exchange purchases of nearly USD 11 billion, helping strengthen its balance sheet and support exchange rate stability.
• The external sector continues to consolidate its role as one of the main drivers of the economy. We forecast moderate current account deficits of 0.3% and 0.2% of GDP in 2026 and 2027, respectively, while the expansion of Vaca Muerta and energy exports continues to strengthen the country’s foreign currency generation capacity.

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