Spain Economic Outlook. June 2026

Summary

The Spanish economy is expected to maintain solid growth above 2% in 2026–2027, supported by employment, private consumption, services exports, and the housing sector. However, a weaker external environment, inflation, higher interest rates, and structural challenges will constrain part of its growth potential.

Key points

• Key points:
• Global economic activity remains resilient, although growth is expected to be weaker than previously anticipated, particularly in Europe. In any case, risks remain elevated and are tilted to the downside.
• Services exports will continue to show strong momentum, reinforcing their role as one of the main pillars supporting economic activity.
• Household consumption and job creation will remain underpinned by rising disposable income, immigration, and the ongoing expansion of residential construction.
• A less favorable international environment will weigh on growth, driven by higher energy prices, elevated interest rates, and the weakness of the euro area economy.
• Significant structural challenges persist, including the housing shortage, sluggish productivity growth, a less expansionary fiscal stance, and the expiration of NGEU funds.

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