BBVA Research

Despite trade tensions, Peru’s economy is expected to grow by 3,1% this year, supported by record-high terms of trade, improved business confidence, and the construction of new copper mines. Output growth is expected to slow somewhat in 2026, to around 2,7%, mainly due to increased electoral uncertainty.

The sensitivity remains on growth and employment outlook, potentially generating a policy mix where monetary stance staying relatively tighter compared to our early March baseline scenario and fiscal policy not being able to be tightened as targeted in the Medium Term Program (MTP).

Domestic demand remains strong, despite some recent signs of moderation. However, the lagged effects of sharp monetary tightening—now mostly over—along with less expansionary fiscal policy and a less supportive global backdrop are expected to pave the way for a deceleration of both GDP growth and inflation.

GDP is projected to grow by around 2.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, maintaining a pace close to the medium-term trend despite a slowdown. This deceleration will be largely driven by shifts in U.S. trade policy and the heightened uncertainty they have triggered.

Economic activity is deteriorating due to heightened uncertainty; tariffs are affecting an economy already weakened by judicial reform and fiscal consolidation. We forecast GDP to contract by (-)0.4% in 2025, with a recovery expected in 2026 (1.2%).

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

Economic growth will continue to support the dynamism of the real estate sector in the coming months. The decline in interest rates, the strength of the labor market, and positive net migration will sustain strong demand in 2025, although it is expected to decelerate in 2026 as a result of slower economic growth.

BBVA Research presents its new real estate sector report in two presentations: the first analyzes sales, supply, prices, rentals, and demographics; the second focuses on the structure of construction, financing, and sustainability. It includes sales projections, drivers, and trends through 2026.