BBVA Research

The GDP growth forecast is revised upwards to 3.0% (+0.5 pp) in 2025 and 2.3% (+0.6 pp) in 2026. The improvement reflects resilience to rising tariffs, reduced tariff policy uncertainty, and a greater impact of NGEU funds.

Since July, a combination of interest rate volatility and the electoral outcome in the Province of Buenos Aires has generated renewed tensions in financial markets. Higher rates, exchange rate pressures and weaker confidence have led to a slowdown in economic activity.

Construction GDP contracted by 1.1% in the first half of 2025, driven by a 24.6% decline in Civil Works. The mortgage market shrank by 9.2% , affected by a weak labor market and rising housing prices.

The Brazilian economy has been losing momentum, reinforcing deceleration prospects. GDP is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, helping inflation ease to 4.8% by end-2025 and 3.7% by end-2026, paving the way for a monetary easing cycle from early 2026.

As the trade war shock has faded, the recent data surprised the market to the downside as domestic risks take the place of external shock to become the main drag on growth in China.

The Colombian economy will grow by 2.5% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, driven by domestic demand while investment begins a gradual recovery. Sticky inflation and fiscal challenges will condition the pace of interest rate cuts by the Central Bank.

Our baseline scenario assumes the continuation of the restrictive policies prioritizing disinflation in the short term. Global financial volatility affecting demand for EM assets, Trump policies particularly impacting Europe, and increasing domestic unknowns are near term risks on the Turkish economy, keeping us cautious.

The increase in total tourist spending with cards by Spaniards and foreigners slowed during the second four-month period of 2025, standing at 5.7% y/y (4.5 pp less than in the previous period), in a context of rising prices.

In July, remittances reached Mexico for 5,330 million, a 4.7% drop compared to the same month in 2024. From January to July 2025, remittances totaled $34.889 billion, a lower amount than what was received in 2024, and even lower than in 2023.