BBVA Research

Public deficit is estimated to have declined to 2.4% of GDP in 2025, supported by the cyclical recovery and the reduced impact of the extraordinary factors observed in 2024. Compliance with fiscal rules would bring the deficit down to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, provided additional consolidation measures are adopted.

The increase in total tourism spending (domestic and international) remained dynamic during the third quarter of 2025, reaching 6.5% year-over-year (6.4% in the previous period). The acceleration of domestic tourism offset the moderation in international tourism.

Between 2025 and 2027, regional growth will increasingly rely on domestic demand. In 2025, service-oriented regions stand out; in 2026, consumption and investment will gain prominence, and in 2027, industry and exports in the northern regions will become more relevant.

Climate change is not neutral for potential GDP: unmanaged warming acts as a negative supply shock, while early, credible mitigation and adaptation can offset damages and may generate long-run gains, albeit with high uncertainty and strong scenario dependence.

The INE's updated regional GDP estimates for 2024 do not introduce significant changes to the growth hierarchy, which, as noted in September, was led by Murcia and the island regions.