BBVA Research

The sensitivity remains on growth and employment outlook, potentially generating a policy mix where monetary stance staying relatively tighter compared to our early March baseline scenario and fiscal policy not being able to be tightened as targeted in the Medium Term Program (MTP).

Uruguay faces a global context of uncertainty and low growth. Domestically, there is a slowdown in GDP, fiscal challenges, and sluggish consumption and investment. However, the external sector is resilient, inflation remains stable, and the peso is showing strength.

GDP is projected to grow by around 2.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, maintaining a pace close to the medium-term trend despite a slowdown. This deceleration will be largely driven by shifts in U.S. trade policy and the heightened uncertainty they have triggered.

Colombia’s economy gains traction through consumption and easing interest rates, while investment gradually recovers. Inflation is declining, yet fiscal risks persist. Global uncertainty—with trade and financial tensions—adds pressure. Moderate growth is forecast for 2025 and 2026.

We raise the China GDP forecast based on the recent China-US Geneva Agreement and the 3nd round stimulus. We also analyze the recent economic development and the policy outlook.

In the post-pandemic period, amid a resurgence in inflation and elevated global debt levels, the debate over the level and trajectory of the neutral interest rate (r*) has resurfaced. This analysis explores this question for a selection of Latin American countries.

The pig farming sector in Colombia has grown 171% over the last two decades, with improvements in productivity, technification, and health standards. The increasing trend in domestic pork demand represents an opportunity for sector development.

Economic growth will continue to support the dynamism of the real estate sector in the coming months. The decline in interest rates, the strength of the labor market, and positive net migration will sustain strong demand in 2025, although it is expected to decelerate in 2026 as a result of slower economic growth.

China’s banks face headwinds in 2025 amid weak credit growth, low profitability, and property sector stress. Narrowing interest margins and declining lending rates have pushed ROA and ROE to record lows. Real estate woes, LGFV debt, and US tariffs weigh heavily on the sector, while links to shadow banking grown modestly.