El Niño: Impacts in Peru

The coastal El Niño has already reached extraordinary intensity, and forecasts indicate that these conditions will persist until early 2027. Against this backdrop, we estimate that the adverse impact of weather anomalies will reduce economic growth by 0,9 percentage points in 2026 and 1,3 percentage points in 2027.

Key points

• Key points:
• When assessing the aggregate impact of the coastal El Niño, the timing of the event is as important as its intensity. The impact tends to be greater when the warm climatic anomaly coincides with the rainy season, which runs from December to April.
• So far, the coastal El Niño has had a clear adverse impact on the fishing sector, reducing the availability of anchovy. The manufacturing sector has also been adversely affected, with declines in the production of fishmeal, fish oil and warm clothing. In agriculture, significant risks remain for a range of crops.
• During the rainy season, these negative effects are likely to spread to other productive sectors, such as transport, trade, and some services, as excess rainfall causes flooding, rivers to overflow, and roads to be disrupted.
• Previous El Niño episodes provide a useful benchmark for anticipating the potential impacts of the current event. The ultimate impact of the 2026/27 El Niño will depend not only on its intensity, duration and timing, but also on the effectiveness of prevention and mitigation measures, emergency management (particularly during the summer of 2027), and subsequent reconstruction efforts.
• Several factors suggest that Peru is better positioned to cope with this new El Niño episode than with previous events: improved forecasting capabilities, greater fiscal space to finance prevention, mitigation, emergency response and reconstruction efforts, and better preparedness in the private sector. The key challenge lies in effective management and implementation.

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