BBVA Research

We have revised down our 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% (from 1.8% previously), due to weak domestic demand and a prolonged environment of uncertainty. After a weak 2025, formal employment begins to improve. We expect core inflation to resume its downward trend in the second quarter of the year.

The Peruvian economy grew 3,5 % in the first quarter, above expectations, backed by private spending. The Middle East conflict, weather anomalies, and the election result will shape its performance going forward. In the baseline scenario, it will grow 3,1 % in 2026 and 3,5 % in 2027, once supply shocks fade away.

We expect the disinflation process to remain broadly on track against a softer growth backdrop in the short term. Persistent inflationary pressures and external uncertainties warrant a more cautious policy outlook, while selective easing is likely to continue within an overall restrictive policy mix.

Despite elevated and potentially rising US tariffs, global trade remains resilient. Supply chains continue to adapt, benefiting economies such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, while energy reallocation and AI-driven semiconductor demand sustain trade growth despite geopolitical disruptions and protectionist pressures.

Chinese economy is domestic driven and Iran war’ impact on China’s economic growth and inflation has been limited compared with other Asian economies.

The Spanish economy is expected to maintain solid growth above 2% in 2026–2027, supported by employment, private consumption, services exports, and the housing sector. However, a weaker external environment, inflation, higher interest rates, and structural challenges will constrain part of its growth potential.

The Big Data Private Consumption Index recorded a year-on-year growth of 9.4% in April, lower than the rate observed in the previous month (March: 13.1%). This moderation occurred in a context where household purchasing power continued to be affected by the significant increase in consumer prices.

The national unemployment rate remained at 8.8% in April 2026, interrupting the downward trend observed since 2025. This result responded to proportional increases in both the employment rate and the overall participation rate. Thus, job creation continued to be dynamic, with an annual growth of 3.0%.

Social Security affiliation increased by 232,000 people, and unemployment fell by 36,300. Adjusted for seasonality, it is estimated that employment reached 57,000 contributors, but unemployment grew by 2,300. Significant effects from the extraordinary immigrant regularization process are not yet noticeable.

Educational inequalities in Mexico are examined through an analysis of educational lag between 2004 and 2024 and the estimation of a probit model using data from the 2024 ENIGH survey to quantify their main determinants based on individual, household, and contextual characteristics.

Recent economic slowdown has already weighed on the internal sources of financing as retirement savings gain greater relevance. These resources have been allocated mainly to the public sector and households, particularly through banking credit.

The significant appreciation of the Mexican peso over the past 12 months has supported domestic consumption and the performance of the services sector; however, it has also generated important pressures on export-oriented manufacturing and domestic suppliers operating with low profit margins.

The Colombian automotive sector experienced a strong recovery in 2025 and has further accelerated its momentum in 2026. Growth has been driven by improved household consumption, the rise of utility vehicles, and the advancement of hybrid and electric technologies.

The automotive market recovered supported by improved affordability, credit conditions, and lower exchange rate distortions. However, local production and the external sector still face structural constraints, limiting the sustainability of growth over the medium term.