April’s print marked the first deceleration in headline inflation in 11 months.

Summary

April's CPI posted a 2.6% m/m increase (32.4% y/y, with a 12.3% YTD print for 2026), representing the most significant disinflationary milestone since December 2025. The monthly print was in line with consensus, matching market expectations.

Key points

• Key points:
• The primary driver behind the sequential deceleration from March (3.4% m/m) was the price dynamics in the beef category. This component alone contributed 50 bps (out of the total 80 bps compression) to the m/m decline in the headline figure.
• We forecast headline inflation to break below the 2.0% m/m threshold during H2 2026, providing a path for the print to settle at 29% in Dec-26.

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