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    China| An input-output table analysis on US’s “reciprocal” tariffs on Asian countries

    Published on Tuesday, May 6, 2025

    China| An input-output table analysis on US’s “reciprocal” tariffs on Asian countries

    Summary

    The report analyzes U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Asian countries, with Cambodia and Vietnam hit hardest. Dual dependency puts many Asian economies in a strategic dilemma between the US and China. Using input-output models, it presents three scenarios (risk, pragmatic, optimistic) showing varying GDP impacts.

    Key points

    • Key points:
    • US tariffs hit Asian countries unevenly, with Cambodia and Vietnam most affected due to their heavy reliance on US markets.
    • China remains a key supplier of intermediate goods across the region, especially in manufacturing sectors like electronics and machinery.
    • Many Asian countries' dual dependence on the US for exports and China for inputs is creating a growing strategic and economic dilemma.
    • If high tariffs remain in place, export-reliant economies like Cambodia and Vietnam could suffer severe GDP losses of up to 10%.
    • Negotiated outcomes may reduce impact but lead to regional divergence.

    Geographies

    Authors

    Betty Huang BBVA Research - Economist
    Le Xia BBVA Research - Chief Economist

    Documents and files

    China| An input-output table analysis on US’s “reciprocal” tariffs on Asian countries
    Report (PDF)

    China| An input-output table analysis on US’s “reciprocal” tariffs on Asian countries

    English - May 6, 2025

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