Searcher

China

China latest publications

March 18, 2020

China | Forecasting modeling for China's inflation

We are trying to assess a large group of forecasting models’ performance in predicting China’s inflation. Both linear and structural forecasting models are discussed, estimated and evaluated based on some typical criteria such as RMSE, MAE and Theil-U.

March 16, 2020

China | Negative Jan-Feb economic activity outturns point to a historical low growth in Q1

A batch of record-low negative January-February indicators announced today pointed to a significant slowdown in economic activities in Q1 amid the outbreak of COVID-19 in China.

March 4, 2020

Lessons from China’s past banking bailouts

China’s banking sector, particularly small and medium-sized banks, today face a headwind of asset quality deterioration. Revisiting Chinese bank rescues from the early 2000s, we examine how the authorities tackled a severe rise in non-performing loans (NPLs).

February 26, 2020

The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on China’s External Balance

Our results based on the foreign reserve decomposition method and the forecasting practice show that the impact of COVID-19 on China, although very large on Q1 and Q2 economic growth, will be quite limited on China’s Balance of Payments, especially the foreign reserve.

January 27, 2020

US-China trade deal: a brake on slowdown in China

In 2019 as a whole, and in the midst of trade tensions with the US, China grew by 6.1%. This represents half a point less than in 2018, close to the lower-end of the official growth target range of 6–6.5%, representing the lowest on record since 1990.

January 23, 2020

China Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2020

Chinese economic growth has slightly recovered in the last quarter of 2019, although it continued its medium-to-long-term slowdown trend amid unsettled trade war and domestic structural obstacles. The 2019 whole year GDP growth reached 6.1%, the lowest growth rate for the past three decades.

December 30, 2019

North American Trade Agreement: An Excellent Opportunity For Mexico

Mexico, Canada and US have reached an agreement to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) entered into 25 years ago and which president Donald Trump promised to renegotiate during his electoral campaign. It's important to remember that an understanding had already been reached in December of last year.

December 18, 2019

RMB Internationalization: A Ten-year Review

The RMB has taken steps on its internationalization march. This ppt reviews RMB's expanding role in global trade and businesses in the past decade, strategies to increase overseas usage of RMB and "811" devaluation and its implication. The next breakthrough will be the opening-up of the domestic bond market.