Publications

We elaborate on the recent developments of China's monetary policy framework, including introducing new policy rate, upgrading "corridor" and developing new monetary policy tools.

In recent months, the main feature of the global economic outlook has been the increase in uncertainty. The erratic tariff policy of the American administration and the lack of precedent for recent protectionist shocks have made reading the economic outlook complicated.

The report analyzes U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Asian countries, with Cambodia and Vietnam hit hardest. Dual dependency puts many Asian economies in a strategic dilemma between the US and China. Using input-output models, it presents three scenarios (risk, pragmatic, optimistic) showing varying GDP impacts.

This year, the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) in Washington were characterized by noise. The biggest concerns remain the impact of tariffs on the economy and on financial assets, especially the dollar.

China’s banks face headwinds in 2025 amid weak credit growth, low profitability, and property sector stress. Narrowing interest margins and declining lending rates have pushed ROA and ROE to record lows. Real estate woes, LGFV debt, and US tariffs weigh heavily on the sector, while links to shadow banking grown modestly.

In the 21st century, history is again being challenged by a wave of protectionism from the United States. President Donald Trump has just announced a barrage of tariffs that marks the country's biggest protectionist offensive in almost a century.

Amid the China-US trade war, we still raised our China 2025 and 2026 GDP forecast due to the jumbo size stimulus package, the new growth engine high-end manufacturing to support growth and lower-than-expected tariff imposed.

The recently closed "two sessions" set the 2025 growth target at around 5% and raised the fiscal deficit budget to 4%, breaking the redline of 3%.