China latest publications
Q2 growth momentum moderated but with a more balanced structure. 2H 2021 policy will remain neutral but accommodative with "no sharp turnaround" to be either aggressive easing or tightening.
The Q2 GDP figures together with June real economic indicators confirmed a continuing moderated year on year growth momentum. We anticipate that the growth rate will slowly fall from the previous high level to its long-term potential growth trend in 2H 2021.
We provide a macro analytical framework to investigate what determines the RMB exchange rate trend in 2H21. RMB exchange rate is expected go back to the 6.4 to 6.5 range at end-2021 and will display two-way fluctuations.
The Covid-19 pandemic hit the world unexpectedly in 2020 and manifested the discrepancy between AEI and MOFCOM reported ODI figures. In this report, we try to redraw China's ODI footprint after excluding the round-tripping, project ODI in 2021 and summarize new features of China’s ODI in the post-pandemic era.
It is important to understand what was going on in the past year’s BoP abnormalities and to predict this year’s BoP items while investigating the sustainability of these abnormalities.
China’s monetary policy challenges in the post-pandemic time include to smoothly exit loosening monetary policy, to smoothen transmission mechanism, to redefine the role of monetary policy in financial stability, and to integrate carbon neutrality target into policy objectives.
Economic recovery is still solid in that the Q1 GDP registered a record-high year-on-year growth rate of 18.3%. The authorites are phasing out their policy stimulus. More policy attention has shifted to winding down the legacy debt caused by the anti-pandemic relief measures and tackling financial vulnerabilities.
The annual “two-sessions” of China, namely the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), commenced in Beijing on March 4th 2021 and will be last for around one week, which are always the top priority in China’s political agenda every year.