China’s 2023 Q3 economic activities are better-than-expected and stronger than Q2 outturns amid policy support, showing some bottomed-out signals after Q2’s dipping.
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November 13, 2023
China | RMB Internationalization: what is the progress for BBVA footprint countries?
We analyze the recent progress of RMB internationalization in BBVA footprint countries including Spain, Türkiye, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, Mexico, Venezuela and Brazil.
The report aims to identify the fundamental differences between China and Japan, highlighting key distinctions to conclude that China will not experience "Japanization" or a "balance sheet recession."
There are some positive signals in 2023 Q3 GDP today, together with September economic indicators, suggesting the economy might pass the worst amid policy support.
Chinese economy slowed down in Q2 amid housing crash and deflation expectation. We expect the economy could bottom out in the rest of year with the help of policy support.
There are some positive signals in August activity indicators, suggesting the economy might have passed the worst amid a series of recent policy support.
September 12, 2023
China | Structural change of the trade: forced imports substitution industrialization
China's exports and imports are experiencing some structural change. The forced Chinese version of imports substitution industrialization indicates value chain upgrading and technology self-sufficiency.
The recent data show that China is going into the coexistence of growth slowdown and deflation. Given China still has enough policy room, we do not think China will enter into "Japanization".
The 2023 July Politburo meeting analyzed the economic situation and pointed out the policy direction in the short and long term.
China’s Q2 2023 GDP growth moderated to 6.3% y/y, suggesting the previous strong recovery momentum came to a halt in Q2 amid the fading effect of reopening.
RMB to USD exchange rate has cumulatively depreciated by 8% in 2023, amid expectation change of the US FED hike path. Look forward, we predict RMB to go back to around 7-7.1 at end-2023 and 6.7 at end-2024.
Headline inflation intensified its downward trend in most countries in May, while core inflation seems to have left the peak behind, but remains high. Supply disruptions are close to normalized levels but continue to soften.