China latest publications
Vaccination, accommodative monetary policy with "no sharp turnaround", possible alleviation of China-US tension under Biden’s presidency and deflationary environment give Chinese authorities a chance for a short respite in 2021.
December 31, 2020
China | EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment: a game-changer to superpower game
EU and China announced the accomplishment of a long-awaited EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (EU-China CAI) on December 30 2020, in a move to open up more investment opportunities between the two economies.
Better settle in after a long haul. After experiencing over-deleveraging and economic slowdown in 2017, China-US trade war since 2018, 2019 African Swine Flu and this year’s most unprecedented coronavirus pandemic flare-up and the arduous work of containing it, Chinese economy might have a previous respite in 2021.
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee presided by President Xi concluded on December 11, 2020, emphasizing the recent economic policy focus and pointing the direction of the next year’s policy stance.
We prefer to support the argument that a neutral, prudent but accommodative monetary policy will be the main monetary policy stance in 2021, while the authorities will postpone the beginning of a real tightening cycle and “proactive deleveraging” to a later stage.
Asset quality deteriorated as a slowing economy continues to weigh on lenders. Banks' profits are suffering pressure on narrowing net interest margin, lower pricing capability, and rising provisions. Although the interconnectedness between banking and the shadow banking system has increased, the room for upside is limited.
The RCEP is indeed a milestone for regional economic integration and post-pandemic economic recovery for member countries. In addition, it will strengthen the supply chain synchronization among the regional members that has been disrupted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic and China-US decoupling.
November 11, 2020
China | Understanding the 14th Five-Year Plan and the 2035 long-term development target
The Fifth Plenum of 19th Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee was held in Beijing during October 26-29, in which the outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for 2021-2025 has been reviewed and approved. In addition, the meeting also discussed the long-term economic and social development target to be accomplished by 2035.