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June 14, 2019

China | Growth slowdown deepened as trade war risk intensified again

A batch of May economic indicators are announced today, together with previously released trade and credit data, suggesting that the risk of growth deceleration looms large as US-China trade war remain unsettled. We anticipate more monetary and fiscal easing measures to be deployed to sustain growth momentum.

April 17, 2019

China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2019

After six months of uneasiness caused by trade tensions, China’s economy proved its resilience when its announced 2019 Q1 GDP figure, along with a series of other activity indicators, surprised the market to the upside. Good growth figure in Q1 has largely relieved people’s concern of a hard-landing in China this year, whic…

April 1, 2019

China | Putting the final piece into the new monetary policy framework: timing is the key

China’s authorities recently raised their rhetoric of completing the new monetary policy framework. Many analysts view it as a signal of lifting the benchmark policy rates. We, however, do not envisage that the removal of benchmark policy rates will happen this year given growth headwinds and the lack of alternatives. Inste…

March 21, 2019

China | Five facts about outward direct investment and their implication for future trend

China’s ODI continues its downtrend in 2018 with energy sector outperforms other sectors. The share of Belt Road Initiative (BRI) countries is increasing, while other countries’ sentiments toward China’s investment remain mixed. We project China’s ODI is likely to bottom out in 2019 amid tougher scrutiny at home and abroad,…

March 18, 2019

China: managing slowdown and risks

On the opening day of the NPC, after predictably praising accomplishments in 2018 such as achieving the 6.5% growth target, Premier Li Keqiang hinted at concern and caution in the face of the high level of uncertainty.

March 15, 2019

China | Sluggish growth at the beginning of the year

A batch of January-February economic indicators is announced, together with previously released trade and credit data, suggesting growth slowdown continues despite the recent easing measures and good progress of China-US negotiation. A couple of factors weigh on growth, including the faded effect of previous front-loading e…

February 26, 2019

China | Gauging the impact of US tech war on China: an input-output table analysis

Although the US-China tariff war is likely to come to an end soon, a tech war between these two economies is looming large. In this report, we try to quantify to what extent that China-US tech war will drag on Chinese economic growth.

January 25, 2019

China Economic Outlook. First quarter 2019

The low Q4 GDP figure sends the 2018 whole year GDP growth slowing down to 6.6%, the lowest growth rate for the past 28 years since 1990. This suggests that Chinese economy further moderated amid the unsettled trade war with the US and previous domestic deleveraging measures. It prompted the authorities to beef up their eas…