China| An input-output table analysis on US’s “reciprocal” tariffs on Asian countries

Summary

The report analyzes U.S. reciprocal tariffs on Asian countries, with Cambodia and Vietnam hit hardest. Dual dependency puts many Asian economies in a strategic dilemma between the US and China. Using input-output models, it presents three scenarios (risk, pragmatic, optimistic) showing varying GDP impacts.

Key points

• Key points:
• US tariffs hit Asian countries unevenly, with Cambodia and Vietnam most affected due to their heavy reliance on US markets.
• China remains a key supplier of intermediate goods across the region, especially in manufacturing sectors like electronics and machinery.
• Many Asian countries' dual dependence on the US for exports and China for inputs is creating a growing strategic and economic dilemma.
• If high tariffs remain in place, export-reliant economies like Cambodia and Vietnam could suffer severe GDP losses of up to 10%.
• Negotiated outcomes may reduce impact but lead to regional divergence.

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