Published on Monday, March 6, 2023

Colombia | Acceleration in total inflation moderates: February registered 13.28%

In February, monthly inflation was 1.66% and annual inflation was 13.28%, very close to the forecast of BBVA Research (1.65%) and market analysts, who, according to the Banco de la República survey, expected 1.57%.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Food inflation continued to decelerate in February, as expected, thanks to base effects, standing at 24.1%, 206 bps below the previous month. Perishable products once again played a leading role in this decline, decelerating by 576 bps.
  • Core inflation continued to rise to 10.86%, increasing by 43 bps versus January. The largest contribution came from administered prices, which accelerated by 104 bps in February, affected by direct and indirect indexation effects.
  • Services, on the other hand, continue to reflect demand and indexation pressures, accelerating by 36 bps versus January. Within the first group, meals at table service establishments and fast food stand out, while in the second group rent and tuition stand out.
  • BBVA Research expects annual food and goods inflation to continue to decline due to base effects, so that total inflation will begin to ease moderately in the first half of this year and more strongly in the second half of the year.

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