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In February, monthly inflation was 1.66% and annual inflation was 13.28%, very close to the forecast of BBVA Research (1.65%) and market analysts, who, according to the Banco de la República survey, expected 1.57%.
Inflation in January continued to accelerate, reaching an annual change of 13.2% and a monthly change of 1.78%. The figure was slightly higher than expected by the average of analysts in the Banco de la República's survey (1.61%).
In December, monthly inflation rose to 1.26% and annual inflation reached 13.12%, accelerating by 59 bps from the previous month's figure and again exceeding market analysts' expectations of 12.64% (according to Banco de la República's survey o…
According to the Copom, and in line with our view, the beginning of a monetary easing cycle is not imminent. Even though the monetary authority expects a larger decrease of GDP in 2016 (-3.5%), inflation forecasts were revised up and uncertaint…
The BCB sees 2016 inflation at 6.2%/6.3%, in line with its goal for the period. Moreover, it forecasts 2017 inflation to reach 4.8%/4.9%, which we see as sufficiently close to the 4.5% level it wants to make inflation to converge to. If our vie…
The 3Q15 Inflation Report revealed that the BCB revised up its inflation forecasts for 2015 and 2016, mainly due to the exchange rate depreciation and a less supportive fiscal policy, and in spite of a more negative view on both external and domestic growth. However, the report suggested that the BCB will likely keep the Se…
The 2Q15 Inflation Report revealed that the COPOM expects inflation to close 2015 at 9.0%, decline to 4.8% at the end of 2016 and converge to the 4.5% target only in 2Q17. As its focus is on taking inflation to the target by the end of 2016, its forecasts suggest it will continue tightening monetary policy ahead. We now exp…
