Colombia | Decisive GDP acceleration in the third quarter of 2025

Summary

GDP accelerated to 3.6% y/y in Q3 2025 (1.2% q/q sa). Final consumption led; investment was uneven—equipment strong, construction weak—while net trade detracted. With firm domestic demand and lower inventories, the 2025 call (2.5%) tilts upward.

Key points

• Key points:
• Household demand drew strength from job creation, real wages rising well above inflation, and extra income streams: remittances, public contracts with community groups, work for overseas clients, inbound tourism and better coffee prices.
• The mix favored goods—especially durables and semi-durables (durables +17.2% y/y; semi-durables +8.2%)—followed by non-durables and services. Recreation, culture and transport stood out; restaurants and hotels also increased. Durables amplify the cycle.
• Public consumption surged: in Q3, general government final consumption rose 14.2% y/y, with broad-based gains in collective consumption, market purchases for individual consumption, and non-market services such as health and education.
• Investment stayed uneven—equipment strong, construction weak—while civil works advanced (roads and airports led). Inventories fell, signaling demand running ahead of supply and stronger imports. With the activity index and leading indicators pointing up, the 2025 call (2.5%) leans higher, conditional on construction and on easing logistical and labor-cost pressures.
• Improved sentiment and a healing credit cycle helped. Confidence rose, consumer lending gained pace, and lower delinquency and debt service freed income that rotated to spending, with savings trailing income growth.

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