Published on Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Colombia | Inflation moderates to 6.03% in July, but risks persist

Summary

Annual inflation declined to 6.03% in July, after four consecutive months of increases. As a result, it decreased by 11 bps compared to June, although it remains 93 bps above the level observed at the end of last year.

Key points

Key points:
The moderation relative to June was mainly explained by food.
In food, the relief was mainly explained by perishables. However, we believe this moderation will be temporary, given the risk of lower availability of some products as a result of the recent earthquake (August 10, 2026) and the materialization of the effects of El Niño during the fourth quarter.
In contrast, inflation excluding food increased slightly, completing five consecutive months of increases. This behavior was mainly explained by regulated items, particularly higher electricity and gas tariffs.
Services inflation declined slightly, while services inflation excluding rents fell for the second consecutive month. This could suggest that some pressures, such as those associated with the minimum wage increase, are beginning to dissipate, although upward pressures persist in some components and new pressures stemming from higher labor costs could emerge.
We expect the decline in inflation observed in July to be temporary and inflation to resume an upward trend in the coming months, in a context marked by the materialization of the effects of El Niño, strong domestic demand, higher labor costs, and risks stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. We maintain our forecast of 7.0% inflation at the end of 2026.