ECB comfortable at 2%

Summary

The ECB kept rates unchanged and, with Lagarde’s slightly hawkish tone, reinforced the view that current levels likely mark the end of the cycle. The new projections point to more balanced risks, supported by the US–EU trade agreement.

Key points

• Key points:
• ECB keeps rates unchanged in a unanimous decision, with the euro area seen “in a good place”
• Growth risks now balanced, with inflation projected below 2% in 2026–27
• Lagarde more hawkish than forecasts, declaring disinflation over; cycle seen as ended, with moves only on major data surprises

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