Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. February 20, 2024

Summary

Ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict escalates; 29,092 Palestinians killed, 69,028 injured in Gaza since Oct 7. UN Security Council fails to reach consensus in emergency session. Yemen’s Houthi rebels attack US drone, British ship. Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny dies in prison; Biden blames Putin.

Key points

• Key points:
• Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny passed away on February 16th in an Arctic prison, with the cause of death reported as sudden death syndrome. This incident has sparked international outrage, with U.S. President Joe Biden directly accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of being responsible for Navalny's death, leading to a notable jump in Russia's Political Index, particularly in foreign media perspectives.
• At the Munich Security Conference, EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen urged for stronger EU "Self Defence Strategy," calling for increased, smarter, and distinctly European defense spending and production subsidies.
• Middle East tensions persist with high Geopolitical & Conflict sentiment, though some countries may see a slowdown; Europe faces ongoing high-risk levels in the Protest Index with political tensions spiking in Russia after Navalny's death.
• Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index remains neutral in most countries, with Argentina returning to a neutral stance amidst fluctuating protest indicators.

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