Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. March 20, 2024

Summary

Israeli PM Netanyahu rejected President Biden's request to halt a ground assault on Rafah, Gaza's last refugee area, housing over a million displaced individuals. Netanyahu stated the mission to eliminate battalions in Rafah necessitates ground action, emphasizing Israel's resolve to proceed with the operation.

Key points

• Key points:
• The IPC, a UN-backed global hunger monitor, warns that food shortages in Gaza have surpassed famine levels, leading to a potential mass death scenario without an immediate ceasefire and food aid.
• The UAE has invested $35 billion in Egypt, providing essential support to the country amidst its geopolitical and economic challenges, acting as a crucial lifeline during its current crises.
• As Trump's chances of becoming the next US President rise, his economic and geopolitical policies are under examination. He has threatened the US auto industry with a 100% tariff on foreign-made cars and made conditional statements about the US's commitment to NATO.
• Geopolitical indicators in Latin America are returning to neutral levels in most countries but could to rise in the coming weeks. In Brazil, these concerns are particularly pronounced due to revelations that Jair Bolsonaro falsified his vaccination card, alongside other ongoing investigations into the former president.
• Tensions related to the Ukraine-Russia conflict persist, with Germany's conflict index remaining neutral but showing signs of an increase. France is in a high-risk area, exacerbated by russian reports of French mercenaries in Ukraine and President Macron's televised remarks on potentially sending troops to participate in the conflict.

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