Global | BBVA Research Big Data Geopolitics Monitor. May 14, 2024

Summary

Fights between Israel and Hamas continue. Putin reshuffled top defense positions. Trump goes ahead on most US Presidential polls.

Key points

• Key points:
• Intensified fighting continues in Gaza, with diplomatic efforts to halt violence and free hostages. The UN cautions against a full-scale Israeli ground attack on Rafah, predicting a major humanitarian crisis. The US President has declared such an offensive a "red line."
• Vladimir Putin replaced his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, with Andrei Belousov, previously a deputy prime minister and economic advisor. This move aligns with efforts to manage Russia's escalating defense budget, now at 6.6% of GDP.
• Trump is ahead of Biden in swing state polls, leading in all except Michigan and Wisconsin, according to the NY Times/Siena and ABC News. This reflects a slight national advantage for Trump.
• Protests have persisted, particularly in Europe, where they have escalated and combined with other movements like climate protests against Tesla's expansion. In Israel, protests also demand the return of hostages, early elections, and the resignation of Prime Minister Netanyahu.
• The conflict with Hamas has kept risk indicators high in the Middle East. While geopolitical risks have slightly eased in Israel and Iran, they have risen in Egypt

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