Global | Chartbook of International Commerce. February 2026

Summary

Despite rising protectionism, global trade remains resilient, more consistent with a reallocation of trade flows than with a deglobalization scenario. International commerce has been supported by the ongoing AI boom, robust demand, and a weaker US dollar (which generally supports global trade).

Key points

• Key points:
• Effective US tariffs have recently remained around 10 p.p. on average, about 8 p.p. higher than in 2024. Trade deals, including the recent one with India, could pave the way for some reduction going forward. However, recent tariff threats highlight upside risks to the current level. Uncertainty remains elevated, particularly given the possibility of a legal overruling of the reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs, which could materially alter the effective rate.
• In general, countries and sectors facing the largest increases in US tariffs appear to have been hit the hardest, although they have partly redirected exports to alternative markets. China is the clearest example: it has expanded exports to a broad range of destinations while reducing its direct reliance on the US market.
• Overall, export performance has been particularly strong in China, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, and Ireland and, to a lesser extent, in the United States, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. By contrast, exports have underperformed in Germany, Japan, and Canada.
• Global trade could lose momentum as the effects of higher tariffs deepen and front-loading fades. Still, some of the factors that supported international commerce in 2025 are likely to remain in place in 2026, helping to prevent a sharp correction in trade flows.

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