Mexico | Consumption remains subdued in 4Q25

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator posted a (-)4.1% MoM decline in December (real, sa), the sharpest contraction since the onset of the pandemic, reflecting a pullback in private spending on both goods (-2.0% MoM) and services (-7.3% MoM).

Key points

• Key points:
• The decline in point-of-sale spending adds to the weakness in consumption observed in November, confirming the prolonged softness of domestic demand in 4Q25.
• Slower growth in spending is taking place amid prolonged uncertainty and weak growth in the real wage bill, weighing on consumer confidence.
• Services spending deteriorated broadly, led by sharp contractions in entertainment (-17.0% MoM) and restaurants (-2.9% MoM), alongside continued stagnation in hotels (0.1% MoM).
• We anticipate a weak start to the year for private spending, followed by a gradual improvement through 2026 as the real wage bill recovers and external uncertainty eases; however, other components of domestic demand—particularly investment—are expected to remain subdued amid persistent domestic uncertainty.

Geographies

Topics

Tags