Published on Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Mexico | GDP grew 5.0% in 2021 with a technical recession in 2H21

Economic activity fell (-)0.1% QoQ in 4Q21 with a drop in the tertiary sector and a modest growth in industry; with this preliminary figure and the drop for 3Q21 (-0.4% QoQ) the economic activity slides into a technical recession

Key points

  • Key points:
  • GDP fell (-)0.1% QoQ in 4Q21 driven by a contraction in the tertiary sector (-0.7% QoQ); possible delayed effect of the outsourcing law, lower consumption due to higher prices and Omicron
  • Modest growth in industry (0.4% QoQ) due to a temporary improvement in manufacturing; the risks of bottlenecks extension by Omicron persist
  • Preliminary figures from INEGI point to a 5.0% GDP growth for 2021, which indicates a downward revision for previous quarters, for the second consecutive time
  • The Omicron variant, higher prices, uncertainty for investment and a more restrictive monetary policy as risks for growth in 2022

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