Published on Thursday, June 4, 2020

Mexico | May inflation forecast: temporary jump in inflation

We expect headline inflation to increase 0.58% MoM in May, thereby accelerating to 3.04% YoY from 2.15% in April. We anticipate a 0.36% MoM core inflation increase (3.71% YoY, up from 3.50% in April).

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Within core inflation, there are two different trends, with all components easing or remaining well behaved, but continued pressures on core food prices
  • Inflation is not and will not be a problem for monetary policy with plummeting demand, a rapidly widening negative output gap, increasing labor market slack, and the recent strengthening of the Mexican peso
  • We continue to expect Banxico to cut rates much more than currently expected, until real rates are close to 0%



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