Mexico | Private spending stagnated in June due to slower growth in the services sector

Summary

The BBVA Research Big Data Consumption Indicator recorded a 0.1% month-on-month increase in June, amid a (-)2.0% MoM decline in the services sector

Key points

• Key points:
• The stagnation of private spending is unfolding in an environment of slower household income growth, with continuous deceleration in the real wage bill.
• The weaker employment dynamism is compounded by a pause in household spending decisions, given the prolonged uncertainty surrounding the new U.S. trade policy.
• Within the services component, tourism-related sectors exhibited divergent behavior: the hotel segment fell by 3.1% MoM, while restaurant spending grew by 1.0% MoM, returning to its March level.
• With regard to gasoline expenditure (used as a proxy for mobility), it declined by 1.8% MoM in June (the fifth consecutive monthly drop so far this year), with a year-on-year contraction of 6.4% (versus a 7.9% average increase during 2024).
• We anticipate that the sluggish momentum of private spending will persist into the second half of the year, considering the weaker growth in formal employment and the deterioration of expectations for economic activity in the coming quarters.

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