Mexico | Resilience of GDP in a Context of Uncertainty: Grew 0.7% QoQ in 2Q25

Economic activity increased by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in 2Q25 (BBVA: 0.6%, consensus: 0.4%), driven by the industrial sector (0.8%) and the tertiary sector (0.7%).

Key points

• Key points:
• According to INEGI’s preliminary figures, in the first half of the year GDP expanded by 0.9% year-on-year compared to the same period in 2024, confirming the economy’s resilience amid high uncertainty.
• The industrial sector beat expectations, within a backdrop of shifts in U.S. trade policy, as manufacturing grew 0.5% year-on-year through May (cumulative YoY) and construction showed a gradual recovery; the tertiary sector continued to perform well, with cumulative growth of 1.0% through May (YoY).
• Growth in 2Q25 occurred against a background of prolonged weakness in domestic demand, suggesting that, from the demand side, higher volatility in the trade balance (external sector) may have propelled GDP growth into positive territory.
• We anticipate the industrial sector will record modest but positive growth in 2H25, given Mexico’s relative advantage over other countries in terms of U.S. tariffs; the tertiary sector should continue to evolve favorably, considering the downward rigidity it has exhibited in recent months despite slow growth in real wage bill.

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