Peru | Economic forecast in a new global environment

Summary

Presentation at the "Macroeconomics in Action" conference at Universidad del Pacífico. It addresses Peru’s economic outlook in a context of global change, highlighting external challenges, domestic growth drivers, and economic policy perspectives for the 2025–2026 period.

Key points

• Key points:
• A new international order is unfolding, disrupting the institutional framework that supported trade and financial exchanges over the past 40 years. This new environment has significant implications for the global economy.
• At the local level, the economy is showing solid cyclical performance, growing around its potential. Strong macroeconomic fundamentals persist, which will help the country face a more challenging external environment.
• Our baseline scenario for 2026 assumes a relatively favorable international context for Peru, although high uncertainty will continue to weigh on global growth. Locally, we expect (i) the electoral process to bring some spending caution, (ii) improved investment flows in projects, and (iii) temporary higher consumption due to pension fund withdrawals at the end of 2025 and early 2026.
• In this context, the Peruvian economy is projected to grow 3.1% in both 2025 and 2026. In the medium term, growth will slow due to institutional weakness, rising insecurity, and fiscal deterioration. Despite these challenges, Peru retains opportunities to achieve stronger and more inclusive growth.
• The PEN is strengthening due to a weaker U.S. dollar and favorable terms of trade. Elections may create temporary upward pressure, but it will be short-lived. With inflation expectations anchored and growth near potential, we expect the Central Bank (BCRP) to maintain its policy rate at 4.25%.

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