Peru | Economic forecast in a new global environment

Summary

Presentation at the "Macroeconomics in Action" conference at Universidad del Pacífico. It addresses Peru’s economic outlook in a context of global change, highlighting external challenges, domestic growth drivers, and economic policy perspectives for the 2025–2026 period.

Key points

• Key points:
• The new international order is transforming the framework that governed global trade and finance over the past four decades, creating a more uncertain and challenging environment for the world economy.
• The Peruvian economy continues to show solid performance, growing close to its potential level and supported by stable macroeconomic fundamentals, which will help it better withstand the risks of a more complex external context.
• For 2025 and 2026, growth is forecasted at 3.1% per year, within a moderately favorable but highly uncertain international scenario, and domestically driven by recovering investment, pension fund withdrawals that will temporarily boost consumption, and cautious spending due to the electoral process.
• The Peruvian sol is strengthening amid global dollar weakness and historically high terms of trade; however, temporary upward pressure on the exchange rate is expected in the months leading up to the elections.
• In a context of contained inflation, anchored expectations, and growth near potential, the BCRP is expected to keep the policy rate at 4.25%, supporting macroeconomic and financial stability.

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