Peru | Higher inflation surprises in November

Summary

In November, the Consumer Price Index increased by 0,52%. With this outcome, inflation increased from 1,7% in October to 2,1% in year on year terms, mainly explained by supply factors.

Key points

• Key points:
• Inflation excluding food and energy remained at 1,7% in November. Since March it has fluctuated in a range that goes from 1,7% to 1,9%.
• The jump in November’s price index is explained by transitory supply factors that affected food prices and energy tariffs.
• Both households' spending weakness and an appreciation of the local currency in 2021 (particularly in the second half of the year) will result in YoY inflation decreasing in the coming months.
• Given the recent price evolution, we revise our inflation forecast for this year to 2,1% and for next year between 1,5% and 2,0%.

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