Spain | Castile and Leon Economic Outlook 2026

Summary

Castile and Leon will maintain solid growth, hovering around 2% over the two-year period. This is supported by the recovery of exports, private consumption, and a strong labor market, though it faces greater risks stemming from the international environment.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, which would allow for the creation of 28,000 jobs over the two-year period and reduce the unemployment rate to 7.7% in 2027.
• Employment growth is accelerating, driven by public services, manufacturing, and professional activities, with immigration partially offsetting the region's demographic constraints.
• Exports are regaining momentum thanks to the automotive sector, while tourism spending, from both foreign and domestic visitors, continues to show a favorable trend.
• Private consumption will remain supported by improvements in the labor market, rising disposable income, and household wealth, albeit with a gradual moderation in growth.
• The main risk stems from the deterioration of the international context (energy, supply chains, and uncertainty), while structural challenges involve boosting productivity, increasing housing supply, and easing labor market constraints.

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