Spain | Catalonia Economic Outlook. First Half 2026

Summary

Catalonia is set to maintain solid growth in 2026 despite geopolitical and trade headwinds, supported by consumption, employment, and tourism.

Key points

• Key points:
• The economy continues to outperform Europe. After growing by 2.8% in 2025, Catalonia’s GDP is expected to expand by 2.4% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, supported by consumption, services, and investment.
• Employment remains the main growth driver. Around 175,000 new jobs are expected to be created between 2025 and 2027, with the unemployment rate potentially falling to 6.8%. Immigration continues to account for a large share of labor force and employment growth.
• Consumption and tourism remain strong. Higher real wages and lower interest rates are supporting household spending, while foreign tourism is rebounding at the start of 2026, with stronger overnight stays and tourist spending.
• Geopolitical tensions are increasing risks. Trade uncertainty linked to the U.S., euro appreciation, and higher energy prices could weigh on growth and push inflation higher, particularly affecting goods exports.
• Structural bottlenecks remain significant. The shortage of affordable housing, lack of skilled labor, energy constraints, and the need for fiscal consolidation continue to pose key medium-term challenges for sustaining growth.

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