Spain | Catalonia Economic Outlook. Second half of 2020

Summary

Catalonia's GDP will fall by between 11.5% and 12.0% in 2020 and grow by between 6.0% and 6.5% in 2021, and 85,000 jobs could be destroyed in the two years. The impact of the crisis is differentiated by sector and region. Public policies are slowing down the fall in employment, but uncertainty remains high.

Key points

• Key points:
• By the end of 2021, Catalonia's GDP could be more than 3% below the 2019 closing level.
• The importance of social spending and the weight of tourism (domestic and foreign) contribute to a greater impact on household spending.
• Heterogeneous impact on employment by sector and personal characteristics. Territorially, the most tourism-oriented regions experience a greater correction in employment.
• A broad consensus is needed to take the necessary public recovery measures.
• The control of the pandemic is the main uncertainty. The sectors most affected in the first wave could drag others down.

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