Spain | Consumption Outlook. October 2024

Summary

Private consumption growth will exceed 2023 levels (1.8%) in both 2024 (2.5%) and 2025 (2.1%), driven by positive underlying fundamentals.

Key points

• Key points:
• Job creation, rising wages and pensions, and lower inflation will drive an increase in disposable income. The expected revaluation of financial assets, reduced debt levels, and rising property prices will further boost net wealth.
• The recovery in purchasing power, lower fuel prices, reduced borrowing costs, and the easing of supply constraints are boosting car registrations, which are set to near one million units in 2024 and could rise to 1.1 million in 2025.
• Despite a 9.8% year-on-year increase in battery electric vehicle sales in the first nine months of 2024, they still account for only 5.1% of the total as of September, well below the European average (13.1%).
• Key barriers to electric car purchases include price, charging infrastructure, range, and uncertainty. If no changes occur, their market share could hover around 34% of registrations (±5) by 2035, falling short of the “Fit for 55” targets.
• While stricter CO2 emissions reduction goals will drive electrification, rising tariffs on electric vehicles from China may act as a counterforce.

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