Spain | Región de Murcia Economic Outlook 2025

Summary

In 2024, the Region of Murcia's GDP could have grown by 3.6%, and is expected to increase by 2.9% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The dynamism of the public sector, tourism and consumer spending, and the recovery of agricultural exports explain this year's strength, while domestic demand is gaining ground.

Key points

• Key points:
• If these forecasts come to fruition, regional GDP in 2026 would exceed 2019 levels by 12 percentage points. Furthermore, the unemployment rate could fall to an average of 11.6% in 2026, and 30,000 new jobs could be created in the two-year period 2025-2026.
• The dynamism in pension enrolment was concentrated in Cartagena and outside the city of Murcia at the end of last year, but at the start of 2025, the capital will once again be the most dynamic area.
• Lack of investment, particularly in the housing market, is a bottleneck to growth. Rising labor costs can slow job creation. Aging restricts the contribution of domestic consumption, hinders labor market participation, and increases dependence on immigration, which is concentrated in low-productivity jobs.
• Tourism faces uncertainties related to stagnant European demand, along with possible changes in German fiscal policy and the impact of potential tariff increases by the US, changes in energy costs, and general economic policy uncertainty.

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