Spain | Región de Murcia Economic Outlook 2026

Summary

In 2025, the GDP of the Región de Murcia may have grown by 3.1%, with growth moderating to around 2.5% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. Looking ahead, economic activity will be shaped by high uncertainty regarding economic and trade policy, as well as the slow recovery in Europe.

Key points

• Key points:
• The strong growth in social security affiliation in the region was sustained by the improvement observed in the urban area of Lorca and in rural areas, as well as the solid performance in the urban area of Murcia. Private services, the public sector, construction, and manufacturing continued to drive employment growth in 2025.
• Domestic demand consolidated as the main driver: higher real wages, contained inflation, and lower interest rates will boost consumption and investment, with particularly strong momentum in housing.
• Public investment and European funds are supporting the economy, and the increase in defense spending could benefit the region given the sector’s weight in its productive structure.
• Structural and external bottlenecks persist: labor shortages, high regional debt, exposure to U.S. tariffs, the appreciation of the euro, and the lack of affordable housing are limiting medium-term growth potential.
• By the end of 2027, the level of GDP could stand 15.3 percentage points above its 2019 level (15.2 pp in Spain). If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could fall to an average of 11.8% in 2027, and 28,000 new jobs could be created over the 2025–2027 period.

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