Turkey | Rebound in industrial production in August

Industrial Production (IP) grew higher than expectations by 13.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms and 19.9% yoy in raw series in August. Despite the fading positive base effects 3Q onwards, given the strong momentum so far and recovering global growth, we keep our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9% with risks on the upside.

Key points

• Key points:
• Season and calendar adjusted IP gave a correction by increasing 5.4% mom in August after the -3.4% mom contraction with the holiday effects in July.
• All sub sectors gave positive monthly contribution (capital goods 15.6%, intermediate 4.6%, non-durable consumer goods 2.5%, energy 0.3% and durable consumer goods 0.2%).
• Contrary to the previous months trend where weakening exporting sectors production were compensating domestic demand oriented sectors, this month exporting sectors took the lead.
• Our Big Data demand proxies and other high frequency indicators still gain some momentum in early October (domestic demand remains on track and exports keep improving led by the stronger external demand).

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